2025 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture [Updated October 23] (2024)

The 2025 Oscars will be televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 2 next year while the nominations will be announced a couple of months earlier — on January 17. There is a long way to go until then, of course, but, for us here at Gold Derby, it’s never too early to start thinking about the next Academy Awards. With that in mind, here is a list of contenders we think could be potential Best Picture competitors, as well as all the information you need to know about them. (Scroll down for our updated 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Picture.)

One of the early Oscar hopefuls, Greg Kwedar’s docudrama set in a prison, “Sing Sing,” debuted at the 2023 edition of TIFF. Another, Jesse Eisenberg‘s road trip “A Real Pain,” unspooled at Sundance in January. And Denis Villeneuve‘s “Dune: Part Two” was released in March. The latter was a sequel to the 2021 movie that racked up a whopping 10 Oscar nominations and won an even half dozen. That track record made it even more surprising that the Canadian helmer was snubbed by the directors branch.

A pair of players —Sean Baker’s seriocomic “Anora” and Jacques Audiard’s genre-blending “Emilia Perez” — debuted at Cannes. The former won the biggest prize of the filmfest, the Palme d’Or, while the four women at the center of the action in the latter (Karla Sofía Gascon, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz and Zoe Saldana) shared in the Best Actress prize.

At the Venice film festival, Pedro Almodovar‘s first English feature, “The Room Next Door,” won the Golden Lion. His character study is a showcase for Oscar winners Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton. Third time looks to be the charm for Brady Corbet, who won Best Director for his epic drama “The Brutalist,” which stars Oscar winner Adrian Brody. And Tim Fehlbaum‘s docudrama “September 5” was an unexpected hit, generating plenty of buzz for its gripping retelling of the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis.

Telluride was packed full of premieres of potential Best Picture nominees. Edward Berger‘s “Conclave” is a fast-paced adaptation of the Robert Harris thriller about the election of a new Pope with stand-out turns from a trio of past Oscar contenders: Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci. Oscar nominated documentary filmmaker RaMell Ross (“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”) makes a mark with his first feature, “Nickel Boys,” based on Colson Whitehead‘s Pulitzer-winning novel. Ross reaped praise for his decision to shoot the film from the perspective of the protagonist. Another directorial debut, “The Piano Lesson,” is a family affair. Malcolm Washington directs his brother, John David Washington, while their father, Denzel Washington, is a co-producer of this adaptation of August Wilson‘s Pulitzer-winning play.

A few of these are playing at the New York filmfest, which closed with the debut of Steve McQueen‘s “Blitz. This WWII drama features Oscar favorite Saoirse Ronan (who also stars in the critically acclaimed “The Outrun” as well).

And several more will be seen later in October at the AFI fest in Los Angeles. Two big studio pictures — Robert Zemeckis‘ “Here” and Clint Eastwood‘s “Juror No. 2” — will premiere here. The former reunites his stars from the Oscar-winning “Forrest Gump,” Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, in a drama that spans time but not space as it is set firmly in the same location over millennia. The latter is a tense courtroom drama and is the 40th film directed by this 4-time Oscar champ.

Skipping the festival circuit are several other big budget movies: Ridley Scott‘s “Gladiator 2,” the follow-up to his 2001 Best Picture champ, and Jon M. Chu‘s “Wicked,” the long-awaited movie version of the Broadway musical (well, at least its first act). Both screened for the first time recently to overall positive reactions.

To make our 2025 Oscar predictions for Best Picture, we consider many factors: the pedigree of the filmmakers, the critical reception to their previous films, the box office tally and the track record of the studios.

UPDATED: October 23, 2024

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